Friday, 23 November 2012

RDM Gets the Thumbs Down from Caesar

In the sandal-and-sword days of the gladiators, the triumphant and bloodied combatant would emerge from the heap of human (and sometimes animal) bones and flesh, half-dead from exhaustion and blood loss. 

His eyes would scan the hordes of screaming and baying audience, searching for that one man who would decide his fate; the Caesar. The Caesar would be perched majestically above the rest of the commoners from a vantage position, observing the bloodbath and gore of the battle beneath him. 

The Caesar would then extend his hand out and, depending on how the combatant had performed and (largely) his mood, would either motion for a thumbs up to signify his approval to the combatant's efforts at entertaining him, or a thumbs down to indicate his displeasure at the same. The former usually involves the combatant sinking to his knees in gratitude for being given a chance to live another day, whilst the latter usually involves a swift loping off his head by a menacing imperial guard standing nearby.

Times may have changed and such scenes can only be found on the silver screen and in books these days, but following the fortunes of Chelsea FC sure comes close to a throwback to such brutal days of yore. 

For starters, whilst we do not have Roman Caesars anymore, we have an even more brutal dictator in the form of Roman Abramovich, the owner. And whilst there are no accounts of Roman ever having lopped off anyone's head before (not officially, at least), in his short 9 years at the helm of the club, he has now sacked 8 managers who had worked for him. 

Champions League winning manager Roberto Di Matteo has just become (un)lucky number 8. Despite guiding a misfiring and unpredictable bunch of old fogeys into becoming improbable FA Cup and UEFA Champions League winners merely 3 months after taking over from AVB, Robbie (the moniker he affectionately earned as a Chelsea midfield dynamo) was given the swift boot out of Stamford Bridge barely 4 months into the season. 


The previous 7 managers can attest to Roman's ruthless streak. There is simply no time and place for sentiment or nostalgia as far as this Russian oligarch is concerned. For him, it's all about the results and silverware. Make no bones about it, he is neither a true football supporter nor was he ever a true fan of the club when he rolled into London with his oil money to launch his audacious bid to turn Chelsea into a global superpower. Also, he didn't rise to become the 5th richest person in Russia and 50th richest person in the world with an estimated personal fortune of 8.4 billion pounds sterling by being a nice guy with a heart of gold. 

Despite all that, many would argue that there is a method to his madness. Many would argue that despite the constant upheavals, unpredictability and bad blood that seem to permeate the Bridge, the Blues have tasted more success than even Manchester United (who, on the opposite end of the scale, have been a club that epitomises stability and continuity above all) has during Roman's tenure. This same group would also gladly point out that Arsenal, a club who had stood loyally with 1 manager throughout the past 9 years and produced a generation of gifted footballers has a barren trophy cabinet as testament to the "spend conservatively" philosophy.

So Roman is on the right track, this group of people would say. If he has the money, why shouldn't he spend it as and how he chooses, right?

Yes and no.

From Roman's perspective, what he has achieved is remarkable. He has attained success for the club and turned them from a fashionable, Continental-style playing London outfit into serious heavyweights and (recently) European champions in less than a decade into his project. As an investor, you might say that he achieved all that through shrewd, ruthless, calculated and cunning decision-making. The same killer instincts that propelled him into the world billionaire club has served well in navigating the harsh competition of the Premier League, which is fast turning into the playground of similarly super-rich tycoons. 

However, from a fan's point of view (like yours truly, for example), Chelsea's philosophy is worrying. No, wait, make that extremely worrying. Because all the trophies, silverware and dizzying collection of global superstar players and managers that have come and gone were made possible through one source only: Roman Abramovich. They were all obtained because of his initial injection of massive loads of cash and continued investment in the club. 

Any real economist worth his salt will tell you that it is an extremely risky and foolish investor who puts all his eggs in one basket, no matter how large or secure that basket may initially appear to be. This is because the investor would be standing stark naked in a highly exposed negative Black Swan environment where his entire investments and savings is but one freak event away from being completely wiped out. 

Same goes for Chelsea. What happens if Roman gets into a freak car accident and dies tomorrow? Or gets involved in some major financial debacle that reduces him to pauper level? Or what if he simply tires from playing with Chelsea and turns his attention completely in another area, let's say training Russian cycling bears. What becomes of Chelsea Football Club?

What becomes of a club so heavily in debt, with massive monthly wages to pay, with no sustainable financial model and who relies solely on the continued backing from its mega-rich owner? 

It will crumble. Surefire sales will ensue with players, coaches, managers and possibly even all the silverware plus the kitchen sink having to go to auction in bids to stave off administration. Even if the club miraculously survives administration or going belly up, its position as a footballing force would drop faster than Drogba after a nasty tackle. Chelsea as we know it will cease to exist and we would either be looking at a Leeds United, Portsmouth or Rangers FC type situation. 

This is why, as a fan, winning the Champions League last season felt more like a relief rather than ecstatic joy. This was because I thought, finally the owner has gotten what he truly craves, the Holy Grail. The owner has won almost all important trophies he could possibly win and he has proven to all doubters that his money can indeed buy success.

With that, I was hoping that he would then shift his philosophy into building a dynasty. I was hoping that having conquered all and sundry through instant cash injection, Roman would now aim his sights on perhaps slowly turning Chelsea into a self-sustaining, profit-making institution. It would take time but it is achievable. Perhaps divert more money into building a first grade youth academy, hiring top coaches at the youth level, investing in youth scouting network, slowly trimming the excess fat from the first team, spending wisely in the transfer market and generally dropping a penny or two more into the piggy bank rather than raiding it come every January and summer. As for the first team, forge a stable, core group of young players under a long-term manager to foster a new team spirit and challenge for honours without too many drastic marquee signings every summer.

Well, Roman has clearly thrown all that out of the window with the sacking of RDM and installation of Rafa Benitez as new gaffer. It's not because I rate RDM so highly as a manager. No, it's more because of the timing of the sacking; coming just after RDM had encountered his first blip of his first season in charge sends a chilling message that Roman still has his pedal to the metal and is driving the club at breakneck pace towards success (or at least his vision of it). 

Welcome to the Chelsea show where it's non-stop drama, twists, turns and upheavals year after year. A show that's been going on for 9 seasons and it doesn't look like it will be slowing down anytime soon. We're Chelsea and we're the pantomime villain of the EPL. If football is pro wrestling, Chelsea has made playing the heel character its own. Benitez may be the first twist of this season but certainly will not be the last. We may get Falcao for a king's ransom in January. We may even get Neymar come summer. We may fight off City to land Pep as manager next season. Hell, we may even go for the jugular by luring the Prodigal Son to return to London

Amidst all the madness, one thing's for certain: doing all of the above would involve pumping silly amounts of cash into the game. Loads of cash which Chelsea as a club does not have. Loads of cash which could only come from the personal bank vault of Chelsea's very own modern day Caesar.

Like him or loathe him, the Chelsea empire has one ruler and one philosophy only. Hail Roman.

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