Black Swan

No, the title above doesn't refer to that Natalie Portman-Mila Kunis lesbian romp posing as a ballet movie. It also doesn't refer to the actual waterbird as this isn't a blog on natural wildlife. 

The Black Swan here refers to a philosophical theory or a study on probabilities which seeks to explain the occurrence of sudden, unexpected events of large magnitude which brings major consequence and their dominant role in history.  

The Black Swan theory was one which was popularised by the brilliant philosopher, empiric scientist, economics observer and award-winning author, Nicholas Nassim Taleb. I could write an entire dissertation lauding the depth of this man's thinking and impact of his Black Swan theory, but I'd only  be scratching the surface. So to do him justice, I'd propose that you go read his book, titled, quite obviously, "Black Swan". 

Described in a review by Sunday Times as one of the twelve most influential books since World War II 

If I was forced to sum up the Black Swan theory in a single paragraph (which I'm forced to do here): It is that mankind's entire history, civilisation and indeed evolution has been shaped for the most parts through Black Swan events, and not your everyday normal activities. Men did not come to master the elements, nature and each other through slow, predictable growth that can be charted out or predicted step-by-step of the way. No, almost all huge events, from scientific discoveries to the birth of religions to wars to formation of countries to breakthroughs in medicine to the explosion of social trends or fashion or fads or Facebook or Twilight were all results of random unexpected events which no one had, at the time of the event, anticipated or expected.

At this point, it is understandable that some of you may be wondering how such philosophical thinking might have anything to do with Chelsea, or even football in general. Everything, in fact. 

Compared to the more single or double player oriented sports, a team game like football is shaped in large ways through Black Swan events. Think about it: how many games throughout history have been won through a single stroke of genius artistry or a stunner of a goal which came from nowhere? How many games have changed entirely through one single moment of rashness that leads to a straight red card? How many competitions would have been so radically different had the ball not taken that unexpected bump on the turf, if that player chasing after the through pass had not accidentally trip over his own legs or if the angle of that deflection from the post had just been a teensy-bit more towards inside the goal?

Think of Maradona's Hand of God, Van Basten's volley, Roberto Carlos' physics defying freekick, Zidane's red-mist headbutt, Ryan Giggs' mazy run through the entire Arsenal defence, Rob Green's fumble at the World Cup, Rooney's bicycle kick that stunned their 'noisy neighbours' and most recently, that magical volley from Pappis Demba Cisse which stunned even the most ardent Chelsea fan to applaud. 

Those were Black Swan moments.

The Black Swan is a reason why most managers may give that additional inch to put up with a wayward genius of a player. A reason why clubs pay through their nose for a player who could "produce magic when it mattered".

In football lingo, Black Swan-type players, see George Best, Eric Cantona, Maradona, and more recently Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo or even Ballotelli, are those who could turn the game in a single moment of brilliance. Unfortunately, a lot of these players come with their own excess baggage in the form of indiscipline, a tendency to court controversy, egoistic, childish, prone to throwing of tantrums or sometimes going through lengthy spells of playing with bad form.

Yet, a lot of managers put up with them (for ease of reference we'll refer to them as Black Swans). Some managers understand, without necessarily knowing the term for it, the Black Swan theory. They instinctively realise that if they can build a team efficient enough to be competitive or stay solid during the Black Swan's off days, they will be rewarded when the Black Swans do hit their stride and produce the moments of magic. 

Sir Alex has been the epitome of a modern manager who builds a team of solid but dependable players as the core but embellished with that sprinkling of Black Swans. Arsene Wenger is another who loves Black Swans, indeed his problem is the over-reliance on Black Swans only (to the detriment of stability when his Black Swans don't perform). 

But this season, the manager who must take all the plaudits for correctly applying and embracing the Black Swan theory has been Alan Pardew. He has brought a fairly average Newcastle team to the brink of Champions League next season all through the perfect alchemy between solid dependency and Black Swans. He has the no-frills but solid Tim Krul, steady warhorse Coloccini, midfield enforcer Cheik Tiote, reliable Danny Simpson, Danny Guthrie and energetic Jonas Guttirez making those tireless runs. But the Black Swans in the form of the mercurial Yohann Cabaye, unpredictable dribble-wizard Ben Arfa, goal poacher Demba Ba and most recent of all, the beast of a goal-machine Papiss Demba Cisse, is what separates Newcastle's performances from most other teams. In Pappis, they arguably found their ultimate Black Swan.

Pardew understood that when you provide a solid enough platform for the Black Swans to roost, you sometimes reap the golden eggs. 

And that is what Chelsea has been lacking in recent times: a genuine Black Swan. We now have Mata, Ramires, arguably David Luiz and to a limited extent (due to age), Drogba. Maybe Torres, if he keeps on the road to recovery of confidence. But other than those few, there are none  who you could rely on to create that spur of the moment magic that can turn games. 

Also, the Black Swan theory works best when you create as many opportunities for the possibility of it to happen as possible. In football terms: have as many shots on goal as you can, put the ball into the opponents' last third of the pitch as often as you can and try all sorts of variations of attack from the short pass, to dribbling, to one-touch to long ball to delicate chips. You try everything in the hopes that some of it will hit. Forget perfection, forget carefully planned strategies. The Black Swan thrives in randomness and mass chaos. This probably explained Barca's exit at the hands of Chelsea. When chasing a lead against a team of 10-man who are resolutely sitting in their own box, you don't keep trying to play square passes in the hopes of your tiki-taka suddenly finding a gap in the wall. They should have tried other methods, i.e. start shooting from long range, start dribbling or even attempt an old out physical frontal attack on 1 or 2 of the tired Chelsea defenders. But they didn't and no Black Swan happened. 

Back to Chelsea. To prepare for next season, they simply need to recruit more Black Swan players. They don't have to be expensive: see Gylfi Sigurdsson of Swansea. They just need to be able to produce that brilliant moment of magic. Regularly. 

And for the present purposes, i.e. the FA Cup final tonight, the game will be decided by a Black Swan event. Chelsea needs to ensure that the Black Swan belongs to them rather than Liverpool.